Media Insights: Planning & Buying in a Political Year

In an election year, it often feels like there are endless considerations to take into account when planning clients’ campaigns. Increased ad spend by political entities at the federal, state and local levels can be a major disruptor in the media buying landscape, but it is also important to take into account the more intangible factor of brand safety and a client’s willingness to run their ads in an environment teaming with political ads. We know it’s a difficult landscape to navigate, so we tapped our best-in-class media team to help make sense of the different strategies and challenges of media planning and buying in an election year.

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Landscape 2024

This year is shaping up to be one of the biggest political years on record in terms of ad spend. Collectively, across federal, state, and local levels, including issue money, eMarketer is projecting spend on political ads to top $12.32 billion by the time the presidential election is over in November. This represents more than a 28% jump in ad spend from the last presidential election year in 2020, and a staggering 289% jump from the 2016 election year in which ad spend totaled $4.25 billion.

As with past elections, television this year is expected to garner the lionshare of media ad spend ($8.86M or 72%). Political campaigns traditionally flock to video as a way to quickly and effectively reach the masses – this year in particular, political spend is expected to rise most dramatically in the connected TV space. Projected investment will increase 156% compared to 2020; bringing it in at 28% of overall share of political ad spend ($3.46M), according to eMarketer. Connected TV is a logical progression for political ad investment considering that CTV viewership surpassed that of linear TV time spent viewing in Q4 2022 – on top of the fact that it is also a key means to reaching an elusive younger audience.

Another channel to keep an eye on is paid social, where candidate and issue money is expected to increase spend on platforms like Meta, in particular, as an additional avenue to capture a younger audience that cannot be easily reached by more traditional means.

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Impact on Inventory

The impact on media inventory for non-political advertisers will be felt in terms of pricing and scarcity. Key planning considerations that impact pricing and scarcity include timing, location/geography, and media tactic selection.

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Timing

Not surprisingly, the closer to an election date a campaign runs, the more likely a brand is to hit bumps in the road due to increased political ad spend. According to Basis Technologies, during the 2020 and 2022 political years, they observed “about 50% of the year’s political dollars ran in the 30 days leading up to the election, with 25% running in the ten days leading up to Election Day.” The law of supply and demand applies here, so planners and buyers should be aware of the potential pitfalls of running campaigns too close to an election date.

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Geography

Understanding how “hot” a market is expected to be at the federal, state and local levels helps determine if a campaign will be relatively insulated from political ad spend or not. As we saw with the 2020 election, presidential money tends to gravitate toward key “swing” states in a candidate’s efforts to try to influence undecided voters. However, close races at the state level (e.g. senate or gubernatorial match-ups) as well as divisive ballot issues can also greatly impact pricing as election dates draw near. Reliably “red” or “blue” states do not typically expect to see an infusion of presidential ad spend, but it is best practice to develop strong local relationships with media partners to best understand political spend projections on a more finite level.

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Media Tactics

As we see with the projected political ad spend this year, political campaigns and ballot issues gravitate to video as their primary media vehicle – the long-standing power of sight, sound and motion is not lost on a savvy political ad buyer. As a result, non-political advertisers can expect linear TV, connected TV and social platforms that accept political dollars to experience more scarcity (mostly with linear) and premiums on pricing, compared to other media.  

Linear is particularly vulnerable to scarcity in political years because of FCC regulations which state that all political advertisers must receive an opportunity for comparable air time and placement. This is to say that if a political advertiser buys a :30 TV ad in late news, for example, then all other qualified political advertisers must be guaranteed equal time and comparable placement by that same TV station. This naturally creates scarcity for other advertisers, and their schedules run the risk of getting bumped off the air. Additionally, the FCC states that political advertisers are to receive the lowest unit rates available in a specific program. This further puts an advertiser’s schedule at risk if they negotiated the best rates at the time they purchased their TV spots, as they will be the first advertiser bumped out of programming.

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Brand Safety

Beyond the logistical considerations of advertising in a political year, there is the more foundational question of brand safety. As a brand, how do we feel about our ads potentially running adjacent to political messaging? Or even airing at all in a political window when hostility seems to be an ever-growing theme? Knowing that political advertising has become increasingly negative with divisive attack ads seemingly dominating the landscape, a brand must weigh the cost-benefit of running their campaigns in this environment.  

One approach can certainly be to avoid political windows all together and focus on other key tentpole moments throughout the year to achieve brand goals.  Instead of a heavy media presence in the fall, for instance, an advertiser could shift strategies and reach their audiences during the Super Bowl, March Madness and the Olympics – which is what one of our tourism clients, Travel South Dakota, did this year on a regional and national level. 

There are still strategies to navigate an ad environment strife with negative political messaging while still maintaining presence in the ad space, however. In the digital realm, start by increasing brand safety guardrails:  choose reputable digital partners, whether using a demand side platform (DSP) or going direct to site; create and maintain whitelists and blacklists; monitor social media comments/engagement, and regularly review ad placements.  

Consider avoiding social media altogether. As noted by the AP News, social media this year is expected to be worse than ever when it comes to the spread of mis- and dis-information related to politics. A combination of evaporating social media company safeguards and the proliferation of generative AI to create false content (e.g. deepfakes) are a recipe for disaster when it comes to brand safety.

Standout among political negativity with a positive and even humorous creative message. Being thoughtful and intentional with the message a brand sends to its audiences during a time heavy with political attack ads should not be underestimated. This is not the time for information overload in a brand’s advertising, but rather, brands should make memorable, lasting connections with their audiences if they hope to make an impact and elicit a response.

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Bringing It All Together

This year will likely be the biggest year in political ad spend that the industry has ever seen. The implications of this are far reaching, but one of the most important details to remember is that brands must not take their standard approach when it comes to planning their ad dollars or they risk wasting valuable media budgets and damaging their brand’s perception and credibility.

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Here are a few key takeaways to keep in mind:

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• KEEP IT UPBEAT: A positive and unifying message makes a splash relative to political advertising.
• CHANGE THE FLIGHT: Adjust the timing to avoid the high traffic political times.
• TRY SOMETHING NEW: Capture attention using platforms little used for political advertising such as audio streaming or native display ads.
• TRUST THE FOUNDATION: Building a brand takes time and dedication. Political advertising is like fast food: quick to make, quick to digest, but hardly nutritious. Content that lives beyond the news cycle is what makes a true impact.